Key Insights
- Austin's population passed 1,002,632 in 2025, but that reflects just 0.4% year-over-year growth, a fraction of the city's pandemic-era pace.
- Domestic migration into the city has actually turned negative for two years running. Without gains from international migration, Travis County would have seen its population decline.
- The five-county Austin metro still added more than 58,000 residents in a recent year, but most of that growth is landing in surrounding counties, not the urban core.
- Austin ranked #6 nationally for millennial in-migration in 2026, up from #9 the year before, according to Census-sourced data.
- Texas as a whole is now classified as a "balanced" migration state by United Van Lines, inbound and outbound moves roughly equal, a first in recent memory for a state that spent a decade as a migration magnet.
Austin crossed one million residents in 2025, becoming the twelfth most populous city in the country. That headline suggests the boom years never slowed down. The number sitting right next to it tells a different story: that milestone came from a 0.4% year-over-year gain, just over 4,000 net new residents in a city of a million people.
Maybe you've noticed it too, fewer moving trucks on your block than a few years ago, a "for lease" sign that's been up longer than it should, a friend who left for San Antonio or Nashville and swears they don't miss the traffic. Or maybe you're the one weighing whether Austin still makes sense for you.
Both things are true at once: Austin is still growing, and the growth has changed shape. Here is what the most current data says about who is actually moving in, who is leaving, and why.
| Metric | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Austin city population (2025) | 1,002,632 (+0.4% YoY) | City of Austin / U.S. Census Bureau |
| Travis County domestic migration | Negative, 2 years running | City of Austin analysis of Census data |
| 5-county Austin metro growth | +58,000 residents (+2.3%) | City of Austin / U.S. Census Bureau |
| Austin's millennial in-migration rank | #6 nationally (up from #9) | SmartAsset, using Census ACS data |
| Top out-of-state source | California, plus rising Midwest/Southeast arrivals | U.S. Census Bureau migration data |
| Common destinations for leavers | San Antonio, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, New Braunfels | City of Austin demographic reporting |
| Texas migration classification (2026) | "Balanced" (first time in recent memory) | United Van Lines, 49th National Movers Study |
| Median household income growth (2014-2024) | +21% ($77,759 to $90,430) | City of Austin / U.S. Census Bureau ACS |
The Big Picture: Austin's Growth Has Slowed, Not Stopped
The City of Austin's own demographic reporting draws a clear distinction between the city proper and the broader metro. Within city limits, growth has cooled to a crawl, just 4,025 net new residents between mid-2024 and mid-2025. But the five-county Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro told a different story in the most recent full year of data available, adding more than 58,000 residents, a 2.3 percent growth rate.
The gap between those two numbers is the real story. Growth hasn't stopped, it has moved outward. Domestic migration is increasingly landing in the counties that surround Travis County rather than Travis County itself, with the City of Austin's planning department specifically noting that domestic migration continues to boost growth in outlying counties even as the urban core slows. Caldwell County, southeast of Austin, ranked among the nation's fastest-growing counties in a recent year, a sign of just how far that ripple effect now reaches.
International migration and natural population increase, births outpacing deaths, are doing more of the work than they used to. The city's own reporting is direct about this: without gains from international migration, Travis County would have experienced an outright population decline.
Who's Moving In
Austin hasn't stopped attracting newcomers, it has attracted a somewhat different mix of them than it did a few years ago.
| Factor | What the Data Shows |
|---|---|
| Generation driving arrivals | Millennials; Austin ranked #6 nationally for millennial in-migration in 2026, up from #9. About 10.6% of the city's population are millennial transplants who arrived in the most recent year measured. |
| Top out-of-state source | California, the largest single source of new Austin residents for most of the past decade. |
| Rising secondary sources | Chicago, Atlanta, and Nashville are sending a growing share of transplants, broadening the profile beyond the traditional coastal mix. |
| Primary draw | Jobs in technology, semiconductors, and biotech, plus no state income tax and a cost of living still favorable compared to the coasts. |
| Income trend | Median household income in Austin rose 21% between 2014 and 2024, from $77,759 to $90,430. |
Who's Leaving, and Where They're Going
The harder number to find in most Austin coverage is this one: Travis County's net domestic migration has been negative for two consecutive years, according to the city's own analysis of Census Bureau data. More people are moving out of the county to other parts of the United States than are moving in from other parts of the United States, a genuine reversal from the boom years of 2020 to 2022.
| Factor | What the Data Shows |
|---|---|
| Primary drivers | Slower job growth in information and professional/business services, plus affordability. Home prices and rents have leveled off from the 2022 peak but remain well above pre-pandemic levels. |
| Most affected households | Family households in particular are more likely to be priced out toward lower-cost markets. |
| Common in-state destinations | San Antonio, the Dallas-Fort Worth metro, Houston, and smaller cities like New Braunfels. |
| Short-distance movers | Many leave Travis County for a more affordable Austin-area suburb rather than leaving the region entirely. |
| Out-of-state destinations | Southeast markets offering a similar climate and job market at a lower price point. |
The Suburbs Are Absorbing the Overflow
If Travis County's domestic migration has turned negative, where is the metro's growth actually happening? Largely in Williamson, Hays, and Caldwell counties, the ring of communities that surround Austin proper. This is the flip side of the affordability pressure driving people out of the urban core: buyers and renters priced out of Austin itself are frequently staying in the region, just a bit farther out.
Cities like Cedar Park and Pflugerville, along with Round Rock and Georgetown, continue to absorb a meaningful share of the demand that used to flow straight into Travis County. That is a large part of why suburban growth rates in the Austin metro continue to outpace the city's own, even in a slower migration environment overall.
Texas Is Shifting from Migration Magnet to Balanced State
Austin's slowdown is not happening in isolation. United Van Lines' 49th Annual National Movers Study, released at the end of 2025 and covering full-service household moves nationally, classified Texas as a "balanced" migration state for the first time in recent memory, meaning inbound and outbound moves are now roughly equal. Florida received the same classification. Both states spent the better part of the last decade as the country's biggest migration magnets, and both are now seeing that advantage narrow.
Nationally, the same study found that Americans are moving primarily to be closer to family, for a job or company transfer, and for retirement, in that order, a shift from the pandemic-era moves driven largely by remote work and lifestyle changes. Overall American mobility also continues to decline: fewer than 9% of Americans change residences in a given year now, down from roughly 20% in the 1980s.
For Austin specifically, the practical read is that the city is no longer competing only against itself. States like South Carolina, Idaho, and Tennessee, all lower-cost, lower-tax markets, are now pulling a larger share of the relocation demand that once defaulted to Texas almost automatically.
What This Means If You're Thinking About Moving
Is Austin still a good place to relocate to in 2026?
For many buyers, yes, though the calculus has changed from a few years ago. Slower population growth and softened prices from the 2022 peak have given buyers more negotiating room than they've had in years, and the job market in technology, semiconductors, and biotech remains a real draw. The tradeoff is that property taxes and overall cost of living remain well above pre-pandemic levels, so it is worth running your own numbers rather than assuming Austin is still the bargain it was in 2019.
Does negative domestic migration mean Austin's population is shrinking?
No. Austin's overall population is still growing, just far more slowly than during the 2020 to 2022 boom, and increasingly because of international migration and natural increase rather than people moving in from elsewhere in the country. Travis County specifically has seen negative domestic migration for two years running, but gains from births and international arrivals have kept the county's population from declining outright.
Should I look at Austin itself or one of the surrounding suburbs?
That depends on your priorities. Growth is currently concentrated in the counties surrounding Travis County, which often means more new construction, lower price points, and shorter commutes into the city than you might expect. If proximity to the urban core matters more than price, Austin proper still has advantages the suburbs can't fully replicate. There is no universally right answer, only the one that fits your budget and how you plan to use the area day to day.
Trying to figure out whether Austin, or one of its fast-growing suburbs, fits where you're headed next?
Talk with a Spyglass Realty agentShare your timeline, budget, and priorities, and we'll help you make sense of where the market actually stands right now.
Austin's migration story in 2026 isn't a simple boom or bust. It's a redistribution: slower growth in the urban core, continued momentum in the suburbs, and a state that no longer wins relocation demand by default. For anyone weighing a move, in or out, that's a more useful picture than the headline number alone. Our guide to relocating to Austin covers the rest of the decision beyond the migration data.
Disclaimer: This article is for general educational purposes only and is not legal, tax, or financial advice. Migration and demographic data reflects the most recent figures available at time of writing and is subject to revision as new Census Bureau estimates are released. Consult with your own real estate professional, financial advisor, and other qualified professionals before making relocation or homebuying decisions.
